Welcome fellow investooors! It’s crypto time so let’s dive right in. To access more content find us here on Twitter. Enjoy!
The world of crypto is filled with opportunities to grow our portfolio and reach financial freedom - or even the world beyond. However, how can one spot those opportunities and profit from it? If there is one person that has already proven reaching millions from nothing is possible, it’s Erebos.
Meet Erebos, the high-conviction trader sharing his personal journey that allowed him to reach more than $7,000,000 in a matter of a few years - and it’s worth noting he started nearly from zero. Let’s learn from the mastery and experience of the person who has shown that consecutively catching the fastest horses is more than possible.
As an addition, we have also included the Case Study of ONDO, where Erebos shares his thoughts and describes the execution of ONDO trade he took.
Enjoy the read!
The Backstory
What initially drew you to crypto, and what aspects made you stick around? Also, how long has your crypto journey been so far and have you had any periods of withdrawals from the market?
Crypto was my ticket to financial freedom; I got obsessed with it immediately for that reason. It was extremely interesting both as a technology and as a way to make a fortune. I bought crypto for the first time in January 2018 and have never really taken a break since then. Even during the 2022 bear market or on holidays, I would still check Twitter & TradingView daily.
How do you typically navigate the market? Are you more of an investor or a trader?
My approach is to optimize for the highest returns possible. Sometimes, I'll trade a token in the short-term to get a 2-3x return. Other times, I'll keep a position for months or years because I believe it's the most profitable decision.
A difficult question indeed! I'm an investor who plays the cycle in spot positions, but I'm also active in trading when short-term opportunities arise. I would say I'm a mix of both. To me, the frontier between trading and investing is hard to define. A trade is a short-term investment. Trading is usually mostly technical, and investing is based on fundamentals, but it varies.
How would you define your market edge, and what is the story behind discovering your true edge?
My main strength is being able to identify winners relatively early and to have the conviction to put significant money behind them. I've done it many times, both as trades and investments (LINK, POKT, a lot of LBPs last cycle, RLB, PRIME, TIA, ONDO, etc.). A lot of "alpha" in markets, and in life in general, is just observing, analyzing, and learning from those insights. So, my edge came about just by spending a lot of time in crypto and seeing patterns emerge, developing my intuition, and building an understanding of how the game works.
A lot of "alpha" in markets, and in life in general, is just observing, analyzing, and learning from those insights. So, my edge came about just by spending a lot of time in crypto and seeing patterns emerge, developing my intuition, and building an understanding of how the game works.
What skillset did you enter crypto with and how did it help you along the way?
My skill sets were limited, to say the least! I was studying business and finance when I got into crypto, so it helped a bit. Anyone can enter crypto and thrive; you don't need any degree or specific skills.
Reflecting on your experiences, what's been your most memorable win and loss? What lessons did you pull from these moments?
To this day, my happiest moment in crypto is making close to a million dollars on the Klima DAO LBP in 2021. It was special because it made me cross the millionaire mark and it was my largest win by far at the time.
My most painful memory is losing 50% of my capital in 2019 because I was foolish enough to use leverage. I was all-in on LINK and believed that Chainlink was going to the moon at the BTC local top in June 2019. It was truly horrible, but luckily, it wasn’t a lot of money, so I was able to invest more fiat and trade to compensate for the LINK I had lost.
When it comes to lessons, here are a few:
Don't try to time the market.
Go big when you have high conviction.
Stay calm and collected at all times, especially when you win or lose big. Following your emotions is extremely dangerous.
My most painful memory is losing 50% of my capital in 2019 because I was foolish enough to use leverage. I was all-in on LINK and believed that Chainlink was going to the moon at the BTC local top in June 2019.
Navigating the Markets
You've been in crypto for some time now. How has your perception of this realm changed over time? Are there any areas you feel are less or more relevant to you now compared to when you've started?
Feel free to make fun of me, because I used to be a real fundamentals maximalist—the type of person who thinks the FDV is too high, this token is vaporware, etc. It's a healthy and useful mindset, but it prevented me from partaking in many opportunities. Crypto is a crazy industry with a lot of fluff and degeneracy. Fundamentals don’t matter that much, especially in a bull market.
These days, I care much more about hype and narratives. A low-quality token can go parabolic if people shill it or if it has certain characteristics. Flows are also extremely important to me now. At the end of the day, markets are very simple: Buyers and sellers meet in the order books to set the price of the asset. If you understand supply and demand well, you have an advantage.
These days, I care much more about hype and narratives. A low-quality token can go parabolic if people shill it or if it has certain characteristics.
Reflecting on your experience of being a Chainlink Marines, how would you describe a cryptocurrency community that has turned into a cult? How can those be distinguished from genuine enthusiasm?
A cult is formed when its community members mold their Twitter profiles around the project, when they only talk about that specific token, and frequently engage in aggressive promotion or defense of it. People in a cult live in their own bubble. In my case, my feed was 90% Marines, I had a folder with hundreds of LINK memes (still got it, hit me up for cool Sergey memes), and so on. A cult community is extreme; they invest everything into the project, compared to enthusiasts who might tweet about it a bit but still maintain a normal online life with other interests. Monad is a prime example of a cult. The team did an amazing job because, as far as I know, they engineered it as such; it wasn’t fully organic.
What elements are essential for a cult to emerge, and how do those elements affect the growth of the community?
Memes, charismatic leaders or community members, a shared vision for the future of the project (in terms of price targets and adoption), and having a laugh with other members are essential. I'm a true believer in memes as a community-building tool; they're fun and more powerful than boring factual threads. I recommend studying the Monad case and listening to their growth manager (@intern on Twitter) for a great example of how to build a rock-solid community, aka a cult.
That's what he said: "Building a community is a gradual process, much like making friends. It's about spending time together, finding common interests, sharing jokes, and forming connections. It's not merely about users for our product; it's about nurturing deeper relationships."
What indicators or early warning signs should individuals be aware of when trying to identify cult-like behaviors? Are there any particular tools or strategies that can help in detecting cult-like tendencies, or is it primarily reliant on experience and gut feeling?
The best indicator is probably seeing dozens, if not hundreds, of Twitter profiles that are centered around a project. I've seen a lot of Purple Monad guys on Crypto Twitter recently. Also, seeing some sort of popular propaganda, like a specific price target (e.g., 'XRP to $100') or a belief that project X is the best blockchain, is common. Usually, you know it when you see it—a group of die-hard supporters that will fight for a certain token.
Cults can also become a double-edged sword as profit taking is disrupted by the HODL-mentality. What strategies or approaches do you recommend while engaging with a cult, not to become overly attached to their ideologies and bags?
You have to consciously maintain a level of independence. Much like following traders on Twitter, you can listen and agree with their ideas/opinions, but always cultivate your own thoughts and keep the end goal in mind. We're in crypto to make money, not friends. I recommend setting price or time targets for your investments in cults and not diving too deep into the culture of a particular project. It can be hard to leave.
Much like following traders on Twitter, you can listen and agree with their ideas/opinions, but always cultivate your own thoughts and keep the end goal in mind.
Doubling down on your extensive knowledge and information feed you cover everyday, do you see any trends and/or narratives worth paying attention to that aren’t yet widely discussed? Also, if you were to make a bet which crypto niche will become the most hyped during the upcoming bull run, which would you choose and why?
My answer isn’t going to be very original, unfortunately, as I don’t have anything under the radar to share. I am focused on AI, gaming, L1s, and DePin. My favorite sector is gaming because I see a clear path to mainstream adoption; it is inevitable. It’s also very easy to understand as a narrative, and games can bootstrap large communities with a fun game and some incentives. The question is when crypto games will become popular worldwide; I’m not sure our games are quite ready yet. The most hyped niche will likely be AI. With the success of NVIDIA and the promises of Chat GPT, it’s easy to believe in the crypto x AI dream.
Case Study
Could you walk me through your process of discovering $ONDO. What sources or methods did you use to identify this coin as a potential trading opportunity?
ONDO appeared on my feed a while ago when they launched their Real-World Assets (RWAs) on-chain. I was very active in DeFi in the past and knew they would eventually launch a token, so I followed their Twitter and Discord. They finally announced the listing after months of waiting, and I chose to buy it. As a side note, it's often the case that I find a promising project and know it will be a winner. I then have to follow them and wait for the token to launch. Chainflip was exactly that situation. I had been waiting two freaking years for the token and made a 3x on the listing.
What characteristics of $ONDO caught your attention and led you to believe in its potential? Was it technological innovation, team credentials, market demand, or other factors?
It was a perfect fit for the current BlackRock Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization narrative. It's also a very legitimate project with a strong team in a hot sector, so it's fundamentally sound. ONDO wasn't a play I was really excited about long before it dropped; it just launched at the right time, and I got involved. It surpassed my expectations; sometimes, things fall into place beautifully. Another important factor is market conditions. The market was hot, so I knew people would be interested in a new token listing. A lot of investing/trading is just about frontrunning what people are going to like.
When determining the size of your trade in $ONDO, what considerations did you take into account? Can you elaborate on your risk management strategy and how you decided on the appropriate allocation of funds to this trade?
The more conviction I have, the more money I'm willing to risk. Of course, there are limits. I wouldn't generally risk more than 25% of my portfolio on a trade or investment. It's also about feeling comfortable with that size. If you buy too much, you're going to be under pressure and potentially make mistakes. So, allocating 10% of my capital to ONDO was perfect.
Can you describe your entry strategy for the $ONDO? Did you enter the market aggressively when price action showed strength, strategically time the bottom, DCA, or utilize another approach? What influenced your decision-making process?
My approach is to buy after the listing pump retraces. In other words, I let the listing sellers do their thing before I take action. Each listing is different, obviously; the selling pressure, hype, and liquidity will influence the price action. In the case of ONDO, I used a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) approach. My average price of 11 cents was a bit too high, knowing that it bottomed at 9 cents, but it was good enough. Since then, I've made adjustments.
Considering the amount invested in ONDO - $700k. Percentage-wise, you weren’t all-in, but daily swings can be very hard to deal with, especially while trading altcoins. How do you manage emotions in this kind of trades? Can you explain what led you to have this mindset and share any techniques you employ to manage emotions, particularly when dealing with large sums of money and/or high percentage of our portfolio?
Having conviction is a must. I only take the best setups, thus providing me with great upside and limited downside, as well as less stress. Set your target, be patient, and realize that the price action on low timeframes is noise. You should avoid looking at your PnL and at the chart too much once you're in, as it leads to overthinking and bad decisions. Before the trade, I study the listing and prepare a detailed plan so that I know what to expect. ONDO did bother me; it was very choppy for a few weeks. But I knew it would go up eventually, so it was just a waiting game. When it comes to handling high-stakes bets relative to your net worth, I think you have to get used to the size. I remember feeling really uncomfortable when I opened my first 7-figure position. Now, it's normal. And if you focus on high-conviction setups with great risk/reward, you'll be more calm.
In hindsight, would you have done anything differently in your approach to trading $ONDO? Are there any specific adjustments you would make to your strategy or execution based on your experience with this trade?
Waiting a bit more before entering is the main improvement I would make. I now have a few rules to ensure I don't buy too early.
What lessons have you learned, both positive and negative, that you can apply to future trading decisions?
As mentioned in the last question, my main error when playing listings is buying too early, so the ONDO trade was helpful in realizing that. That's about it; the trade went well, and my system is now quite advanced, so I'm excited to find my next solid swing!
The Finish Line
What's the best piece of advice you've ever received, be it related to the market or life in general?
Shoot for the stars. Don’t be afraid to dream big. Even if you fail, you’ll still end up in a much better position than if you had set easily achievable goals.
Looking back on your crypto journey, what's the one lesson that stands out to you the most?
A single trade/investment can change your life. The more time you invest in crypto, the more likely you are to catch your moonshot.
Let’s finish this interview with a bit of fortune telling. If you were to make one prediction about the upcoming bull market, what would it be?
Bitcoin tops between $100k-$150k.
Closing Alpha from Erebos
Your best shot at making a ton of money is to specialize in something.
Find a profitable niche/sector/setup/strategy, become one of the best at it, and then keep winning & winning. It might be gaming small caps, ordinals…
Anything that’s hot.
That’s all for today, thank you all for reading this week’s Crypto Market Talks and see you in two weeks time! To access more content find us here on Twitter. See you there!
~ Crypto o’Clock Team
This interview is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It is not intended as a solicitation to buy or sell any assets, and readers are strongly advised to conduct their own research and seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. The authors and publishers disclaim any liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the information contained herein.
Erebos said he improved few things to get better entries. What are the rules he implemented not to buy too early?
I love these series guys!