#20 Weekly Market Update - Halving & Market Outlook
With Halving we're finally in the last stage of the bull, when will the moon mission begin?
Welcome fellow investooors! It’s crypto time so let’s dive right in. To access more content find us here on Twitter. Enjoy!
Today, in Weekly Market Update:
Restaking Still Hot
TIA Whale Entered the Chat?
MAGA Enters Mainstream
and much more…
“Buy when everyone else is selling and hold until everyone else is buying. That’s not just a catchy slogan. It’s the very essence of successful investing.” - J. Paul Getty
The past few weeks have not been kind, even to the most steadfast crypto veterans. We've entered a phase of the market slow bleed out, with altcoins having a far more aggressive correction than many had predicted - bear in mind it all happened while Bitcoin still hovers above the $60k mark. What happens to alts if Bitcoin falls to around $52-54k range? Will we even see such declines or have found the bottom? Opinions on this topic are more than divided, and we're talking about individuals who have spent years on the markets—not just in crypto.
On one hand, there are voices suggesting that Bitcoin's recent behavior is a typical Distribution Zone, which could lead to a downward trend - but not a bear market. Add to this geopolitical tensions and uncertainty that goes with it, misunderstandings about the halving - mistakenly believed by some that our Bitcoin holdings will halve somehow, and although it became a meme, it shows how misunderstood Bitcoin still is as an asset to TradFi boomers. Moreover, the weakness of new projects, overall trend stagnation, and rising Bitcoin Dominance do not paint a pretty and optimistic picture.
Yet, the counterarguments about "hitting the bottom" are valid - maybe more valid then ever.
Historically looking at Bitcoin's behavior before and after the halving, similar dips and ranges are quite natural. Additionally, we should expect playing within the range in the coming weeks, but the way in which we will play it shouldn't be as negative as before - maybe we will even see some relief rallies on alts. The halving is behind us, a new cycle phase has just begun, so price rallies are only a matter of time.
Despite the very unfriendly market, some still choose to actively trade the current range - or catch knifes, instead of switching to survival mode and preserving their capital by allocating it to spot positions they feel most confident about. However, let's not do this in one transaction, but try to apply a Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy, to catch a better entry price if further dips take place.
Nowadays - and weeks that will follow, is the a great time to observe your portfolio, analyze strategies for the upcoming bull run, search for tokens that show market strength during declines, and rid yourself of tokens that display market weakness. Avoid leverage, as no one knows if a flash-crash or a black swan event will occur that could quickly clear your stop losses and a obliterate your trading portfolio that could be better placed elsewhere - e.g. in spot bags of your fav coins.
So, let's now answer some questions and prepare for what is to come. Is our portfolio optimized for the upcoming rises? And are we holding onto dead projects that are showing their true colors during these declines?
Take care of your capital and portfolio, and they will take care of your profits in this bull run.
See you in the orderbooks!
The Next Step for TON: Welcome to Memeland
The introduction of Memeland, a space designed for the creation and trading of memecoins on TON, marks yet another initiative pushing Telegram to the forefront of crypto ecosystems. Additionally, the founder of TON has made a positive impact with his appearance in a Tucker Carlson interview, receiving a warm reception from Crypto Twitter. This sets the stage for an intriguing development in the TON ecosystem in the coming months...
EigenLayer Removes Limits
With EigenLayer's move to Mainnet, the next step has been to eliminate restaking limits. Now, everyone can stake their ETH without the previous time and quantity restrictions. Despite a near 5% TVL withdrawal - negligible in the crypto world, the allure of Restaking remains strong, with statistics showing a continuous upward trend. Currently, over 14.3% of all staked ETH and LST are being restaked.
An Unexpected Partnership
Justin Sun has hired one of the most recognized film music composers - Hans Zimmer, to create music for the Tron ecosystem or the "TRON Anthem" as Justin calls it. This collaboration marks a unique fusion of music and technology and shows who’s killing the marketing game here - in a positive way ofc.
Memecoins in Presidential Campaigns
Once again, memecoins are proving to be what altcoins were in previous bull runs - a source of market attention and capital flow. This time, it involves Donald Trump's MAGA memecoin, which briefly announced an official partnership with the highly public and controversial figure, Roger Stone. Although the tweet announcing the partnership was later deleted, Stone continues to tweet about MAGA, drawing significant media coverage.
https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/1780478343952957584
https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/1780851437204861361
Stress Test for Ethena
As you might recall, the Ethena project heavily relies on positive market sentiment related to profitable ETH funding rates. Therefore, the current market conditions serve as a good stress test for the project's future and its perception by major players who might hesitate to keep significant funds in Ethena's stablecoin - and maybe it will change after this stress test, who knows. If you're holding ENA, keeping an eye on this situation is a must have.
Worldcoin's Ecosystem Expansion
Taking another step forward, this time in the form of creating its own blockchain based on Optimism - i.e. OPStack. It's interesting to note the increasing number of projects choosing to launch their chains on Optimism, suggesting expanding integration possibilities between them - and between Base. Plus, the purchase of more goats from Worldcoin profits - could there be a better advertisement? :D
TradFi's Involvement in New Crypto Technologies
Franklin Templeton's recent focus on publishing an article on Runes starting with the Bitcoin halving block shows not only the interest in Bitcoin as an asset from TradFi’s side, but also Bitcoin’s ecosystem, potentially widening the target audience and improving Bitcoin's understanding among new investors - bear in mind some don’t comprehend what halving is. It's amazing how quickly things can change in just a few years.
Binance Shifts to USDC
Recalling last year's turmoil with Binance US, you can understand the significant change in Binance US's approach to playing by the rules in the USA. Last week, Binance converted its Emergency Fund assets to USDC, while last year, USDC pairs were suspended on Binance platform. This not only highlights the immense role of regulators at play, but also shows the importance of stablecoins in the broader crypto economy. Whoever controls stablecoins wields real power in the market and beyond.
Notcoin Launch Delayed
The decision to delay the launch of Notcoin indefinitely is both surprising and completely understandable. Given the tough times new projects are currently experiencing - which could impact their future development paths, it's no wonder the listing has been postponed indefinitely. So, the delay in Notcoin's launch should not be a cause for concern. When market sentiment and liquidity improve, so will the listings.
Roundtripping Gains
How many times have we passed the top price of a token and gave away nearly all the gains we made along the way, reverting to the starting point in terms of our portfolio? Roundtripping gains is a widespread phenomenon that even the best traders and investors fall prey to because the project still seems to have potential, still has room to grow, and there still is this vision of a 10x return during a bull run. While some projects may indeed rebound strongly and have a great run, others will never return to the tops we’ve missed on selling. ABC - Always be closing.
https://twitter.com/edwardmorra_btc/status/1779817622215016714
https://twitter.com/edwardmorra_btc/status/1779818558677188705
Bitcoin Accumulation
While some speak of a Distribution Zone and impending declines, others point to continuous Bitcoin accumulation by on-chain wallets. This is not the first time tweets have shown that while retail and newcomers sell off, whales are buying up Bitcoin, taking advantage of market discounts. I guess we should listen to what whales are doing, right?
Is This TIA's Bottom?
Joshua shares his insights on the behavior of the Celestia and its TIA token, which may be nearing its price bottom after continuous declines over recent weeks. Open Interest on the TIA token has significantly dropped, and a large amount of new tokens have appeared on staking, suggesting that maybe someone has accumulated a substantial amount of TIA on the OTC market to prepare for some airdrop. By the way, who among you said they were just waiting for the dip on TIA to buy more back when TIA was the Top coin to get on a moon mission? How many of you took the opportunity recently?
New Approaches to Airdrops and Launches
Many of you remember the memecoins associated with Jupiter on Solana, launched to stir up emotions and prepare capital for the final project launch. While the effect in Jupiter's case was somewhat controversial- with arguments being made for and against, it seems this will become a more common practice. This time, Hyperliquid is releasing its memecoin ahead of converting farmed points into tokens. Will it turn out better this time?
Another Article from ZeePrime
This time, ZeePrime presents an article discussing blockspace and its evolving nature with the development of crypto. Is blockspace truly a Veblen Good, or has it become a Giffen Good over time? Are Layer 2 blockspaces really necessary, and will they impact project valuations?
Ragnarok Joins Ronin
Ragnarok will be the first intellectual property - IP, from the Web2 world to join the Ronin ecosystem. With over 167 million downloads of games from Ragnarok - a relatively new brand from South Korea, this is quite an achievement, especially considering how well Asians can promote their products. Below is a link to sign up for the Waitlist of their new game, which will ensure early access for those interested.
Rising Importance of Stablecoins
Great article that aims to present how critical stablecoins have already become to the dollar system and how much potential there is in its future. While theoretical in nature, this article is a must-read if you've been following the development of the stablecoin market over recent months and years. This is just an excellent summary of the significance of stablecoins today and also a great thought direction for those who are not sure what is going on, and why TradFi is joining the game of stablecoins.
That’s all for today, thank you all for reading this week’s edition and see you in the next one! May the profits be with you!
To access more content find us here on Twitter. See you there!
~ Crypto o’Clock Team
This newsletter is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It is not intended as a solicitation to buy or sell any assets, and readers are strongly advised to conduct their own research and seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. The authors and publishers disclaim any liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the information contained herein.